Monitored Tension: India and Pakistan
In April 2025, an armed attack in Jammu and Kashmir prompted a renewed escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan, reviving long-standing disputes over the region. On 22 April, five armed militants affiliated with The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, carried out a coordinated assault on tourists in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam (Anantnag district). The attack killed 26 civilians, including several foreign nationals, marking the deadliest civilian incident in India since 2008.
In response, India conducted retaliatory airstrikes on 6 May against alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan countered by downing Indian aircraft and launching its own strikes, resulting in the most severe military confrontation between the two nations in nearly three decades.
Although a ceasefire was brokered on 10 May 2025 through international mediation including the United States, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, China, and the UK, alleged ceasefire violations persist, particularly along the Line of Control. Given the enduring territorial dispute, nuclear capabilities on both sides, the involvement of non-state actors, and volatile rhetoric, this situation remains a critical case of monitored tension.
The World Embassy Desk (WED) will continue to monitor developments, facilitate de-escalatory dialogue when appropriate, and provide early-warning assessments to ensure that renewed hostilities are averted and regional peace is preserved.
May 6-8, 2025, Nuclear Signalling
In response to escalating tensions following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, high-ranking officials from both India and Pakistan made statements between May 6-8 that have raised alarms about the potential for nuclear escalation. India’s remarks suggesting that “no option is off the table” represent a deviation from its traditional ‘No First Use’ policy, while Pakistan’s reaffirmation of its credible minimum deterrence stance underscores the urgency of the situation.
Such rhetoric presents grave concerns under international law, particularly within the framework of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), which requires the proportionality and distinction of military actions to prevent civilian harm. The nuclear signaling in this context contravenes the principles of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which aims to mitigate the risks of nuclear conflict and promote disarmament.
The WED calls upon both parties to reaffirm their commitment to multilateral dialogue and to uphold their legal obligations to prevent further escalation, reduce tensions, and protect civilian populations in accordance with international law.
May 6, 2025, Military Build-Up and Border Activity
Following India’s retaliatory airstrikes on May 6, both nations have engaged in significant troop mobilization along the Line of Control. Military sources and open-source intelligence confirm the movement of ground forces, artillery units, and air-defense assets by both sides.
Between May 6 and May 9, the LoC has seen repeated artillery exchanges and small-arms skirmishes, with several civilian casualties and extensive displacement reported. Both sides allege provocations and breaches, but international observers warn of a potential breakdown in the principle of non-use of force, as enshrined in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.
India has invoked its right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter in justifying its airstrikes. The WED underscores the importance of ensuring that any use of force complies with the principles of necessity and proportionality, particularly given the involvement of non-state actors. Pakistan, in turn, asserts that its countermeasures were defensive and aimed at restoring deterrence. The WED calls on all parties to exercise restraint and comply fully with international law to prevent further escalation and maintain regional stability.