Afghanistan / Pakistan

On 16 March, tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated sharply when Pakistan carried out an airstrike on a drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul. In the days that followed, reports indicated that hundreds of people had been killed. Shortly thereafter, Pakistan announced a temporary halt in hostilities in anticipation of Eid al-Fitr, following appeals from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar.

The incident marked the most lethal episode since late February, when the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan targeted Pakistani military installations near the contested border. Pakistan responded within hours by launching strikes on several Afghan border regions as well as Kabul, representing the first time it had extended operations into Afghan urban centres. Pakistan’s defence minister subsequently described the situation as an “open war,” a characterization that underscores the severity of the escalation and places further strain on the already fragile ceasefire agreed in October 2025.

According to figures recorded by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan as of 13 March, at least 75 civilians had been killed and 193 injured since the outbreak of hostilities on 26 February, although these numbers remain preliminary. While the Afghan Taliban has indicated a willingness to engage in negotiations, concerns persist that the situation may further deteriorate.

The underlying cause of the renewed conflict lies in Pakistan’s longstanding allegation that the Afghan Taliban is providing safe haven to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also referred to as the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan maintains that the group operates from Afghan territory, a claim consistently rejected by the Taliban authorities.

In October 2025, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan, stating that the objective was to dismantle infrastructure linked to attacks within Pakistan. This led to the most serious confrontation between the two countries since the Taliban regained power in 2021. That same period saw diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Turkey result in a temporary truce, although subsequent negotiations facilitated by Saudi Arabia ultimately failed toward the end of the year.

Violence along the border has persisted. On 16 February, a suicide bombing at a border checkpoint resulted in the deaths of eleven Pakistani security personnel and a child. Less than a week later, Pakistan carried out further airstrikes in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan, targeting locations it described as militant bases. Afghan authorities reported at least eighteen fatalities, including civilians, and announced retaliatory measures, contributing to the current escalation.

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have become increasingly strained in recent years. Following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Pakistan initially welcomed developments in Kabul. However, the subsequent rise in militant violence within Pakistan has significantly altered the relationship. In late 2022, the TTP ended its ceasefire with Islamabad and intensified attacks along the Durand Line, a disputed border stretching over 2,600 kilometres.

The security situation has since worsened. Reports indicate that more than 1,200 people were killed in Pakistan in 2025, representing a significant increase compared to previous years and underscoring the growing instability affecting both countries.